David Cameron has undoubtedly ended 2011 on a high with his personal poll ratings a good deal higher than either Ed Miliband's, Nick Clegg's or indeed his own party's.
The same can most definitely not be said for the Labour leader.
So much so, that there are some in the Labour Party who are now voicing concerns that Miliband does not have what it takes to bring Labour back into power in 2015.
I had my hopes raised after Labour's Annual Conference in September. Most Labour activists were happy with Miliband's Conference speech, despite the press branding it anti-business and one or two lone delegates in the audience booing Ed's support for Tony Blair.
However, I am now much more uneasy about Labour's chances at the next election.
With unemployment at its highest level in almost two decades, public spending cuts starting to bite, economic growth at a standstill and a double-dip recession all but inevitable, Labour should be riding high in the polls and in the minds of the electorate, at least starting to look like an alternative government.
Ed Miliband has said all the right things on many occasions; he was extremely effective in his condemnation of the hacking scandal and had initially set out his party's stall very well in support of the 'squeezed middle'.
But his message has clearly not got through well enough.
It is true that the mostly-Tory supporting press and media still promote the message that the last Labour government are to blame for the UK's current economic situation. And it is a stark reality that apart from one or two exceptions, without the support of the media it is virtually impossible for a party to win an election. However, as the UK gets closer to the next election it should be harder for the incumbent party to blame the previous administration for problems with the economy.
For the majority of the British electorate, PMQs is the only time they get involved in the political scene. With things looking so bleak for the Government, Ed Miliband has missed so many opportunities to nail David Cameron and it is starting to worry many in the Labour Party.
He started off so well.
Thinking back to their first encounter in October last year, Ed's performance was very strong. 'I ask the questions!' he declared, when the PM challenged him across the despatch box.
But the contrast with that performance and Miliband's woeful showing in the last PMQs before Christmas is, frankly, alarming. The Labour leader allowed the PM to completely run roughshod over him with a damning assessment of his first year and a half as leader and Miliband simply did not an answer for Cameron's sharp and quick broadsides. Calling him 'irresponsible, left-wing and weak' was really pathetic from the Prime Minister but Miliband was not able to fight back with any effectiveness whatsoever.
Right now, Ed is simply no match for the PM's brilliant put-downs. He simply wipes the floor with Miliband with his loud declarations that Labour left the country in the depths of bankruptcy. And with Cameron always having the last word, I cannot see what chance Miliband has of proving to the electorate that he is PM-material before any election campaign in 2015.
Before I was temporarily encouraged by Ed Miliband's Annual Conference speech in September, I had said previously that should Labour's poll ratings not improve by the time the Party meet in Manchester in 2012, he should stand down.
I am very firmly of that view now.
I am really not sure that Ed Miliband will convince me to change my mind unless he really ups his game. With the coalition so divided on Europe, Labour at the moment do not have a coherent message to take to the electorate, should the the government fall apart in the near future.
Some Labour activists have said that if Miliband was to come out in favour of holding a Referendum on whether Britain should stay in the EU, this would greatly increase his popularity. But I doubt that alone would save him now. He simply does not have the charisma or gravitas it takes to win.
More importantly, if he can't capitalise on the Coalition's really unpopular economic strategy now, then what hope does he have of winning at the ballot box? I will not be at all surprised if someone does not mount a challenge to Ed's leadership in the not-too-distant-future.
The question is, who in the current Labour ranks is capable of filling his shoes and bringing Labour back into government?
That is a question that is impossible to answer right now.
Friday, 30 December 2011
Cameron Euro Treaty Veto Pleases Tory Eurosceptics But Leaves Britain Isolated In EU
http://news.sky.com/home/politics/article/16126773
There is no doubt that the Prime Minister's decision to veto the recent EU Treaty will have greatly pleased the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party.
Although very much in favour of maintaining Britain's trading links within the EU, I have long had my doubts about European nations being too tightly bound together economically or politically.
And this has now been bourne out by the current crisis in the Eurozone.
I don't often find my self agreeing with Tory commentator Iain Dale, but in a recent interview he recalled how former PM John Major branded the Eurosceptic Tory wing as 'little Englanders' for not wanting to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. They have turned out to be so right on this issue.
Thank goodness Gordon Brown had the sense not to bring Britain into the Eurozone during Labour's time in office. This was despite Tony Blair's enthusiasm for the project.
There were many aspects of the recent Treaty that I was extremely uneasy with. Most notably, the proposal that the budgets of individual member states should be ratified by the EU, so enthusiastically supported by Merkel and Sarkosy.
This was clearly a step too far and would have undermined the sovereignty of each nation beyond measure.
The decision to join the EU in 1975 was a controversial one and the calls for Britain to hold a referendum on whether we should stay in Europe are growing. Many are now suggesting that should Ed Miliband throw his and Labour's support behind holding a referendum on this issue, his popularity would increase overnight.http://labourlist.org/2011/12/the-time-is-right-for-a-referendum/?utm_source=LunchtimeList&utm_campaign=cf1717ac0d-LunchtimeList_72311_22_2011&utm_medium=email
The bottom line is that most Britons have never wanted and do not want a United States of Europe. From this point of view, Cameron was right to use his veto. And the timing of the recent Summit has meant that the Prime Minister is ending 2011 on a high, with his personal ratings well above those of both Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and even his own party.http://news.yahoo.com/cameron-ends-tough-poll-high-190450898.html
However my worry is, that by closing the door so firmly at this stage, Britain's negotiating power within the EU has now been severely weakened.
There is no doubt that the Prime Minister's decision to veto the recent EU Treaty will have greatly pleased the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party.
Although very much in favour of maintaining Britain's trading links within the EU, I have long had my doubts about European nations being too tightly bound together economically or politically.
And this has now been bourne out by the current crisis in the Eurozone.
I don't often find my self agreeing with Tory commentator Iain Dale, but in a recent interview he recalled how former PM John Major branded the Eurosceptic Tory wing as 'little Englanders' for not wanting to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. They have turned out to be so right on this issue.
Thank goodness Gordon Brown had the sense not to bring Britain into the Eurozone during Labour's time in office. This was despite Tony Blair's enthusiasm for the project.
There were many aspects of the recent Treaty that I was extremely uneasy with. Most notably, the proposal that the budgets of individual member states should be ratified by the EU, so enthusiastically supported by Merkel and Sarkosy.
This was clearly a step too far and would have undermined the sovereignty of each nation beyond measure.
The decision to join the EU in 1975 was a controversial one and the calls for Britain to hold a referendum on whether we should stay in Europe are growing. Many are now suggesting that should Ed Miliband throw his and Labour's support behind holding a referendum on this issue, his popularity would increase overnight.http://labourlist.org/2011/12/the-time-is-right-for-a-referendum/?utm_source=LunchtimeList&utm_campaign=cf1717ac0d-LunchtimeList_72311_22_2011&utm_medium=email
The bottom line is that most Britons have never wanted and do not want a United States of Europe. From this point of view, Cameron was right to use his veto. And the timing of the recent Summit has meant that the Prime Minister is ending 2011 on a high, with his personal ratings well above those of both Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and even his own party.http://news.yahoo.com/cameron-ends-tough-poll-high-190450898.html
However my worry is, that by closing the door so firmly at this stage, Britain's negotiating power within the EU has now been severely weakened.
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