http://news.sky.com/story/1048142/gay-marriage-cameron-could-pay-a-heavy-price
http://news.sky.com/story/1056191/questions-for-clegg-over-lord-rennard-claims
There is no doubt that the forthcoming by-election in Eastleigh will be a two-horse race.
Ed Miliband and Labour know that the best they can hope for is to avoid the humiliation of coming fourth behind UKIP.
But David Cameron could very well pay the price for his support of gay marriage - which clearly has infuriated many of his backbenchers and Tory activists. And coming so soon after the ignominy of Britain losing its AAA-rating, the vote will be crucial in guaging the voters' verdict on George Osborne's handling of the economy thus far.
Up until now, polls have suggested that the Tories are ahead of Labour on who voters trust to handle the economy and that the electorate still blame the previous government for the current economic climate.
But Peter Kellner, head of polling company YouGov, speaking on the BBC this week, has intimated that the downgrading of Britain's economy could signal a 'blame-changer' and a turning-point in voters' perceptions of who is responsible for this country's continuing financial woes. http://dominicavibes.dm/news/uk-loses-top-aaa-credit-rating
After all, three years into this parliament, it is frankly lame for the Tories and the Liberal Democrats to keep harking back to the economic mess they had to clear up on coming into office. On Labour's departure in 2010, Britain was slowly starting to come out of recession and the current administration's strategy of making huge cuts in public spending at such a furious rate, has certainly not worked, with the UK entering a double-dip recession under their watch, and a third dip in the economy still very much a possibility.
And now, with Britain being stripped of their AAA rating, this could very well be reflected in the outcome of the Eastleigh by-election. It is just possible that its voters may reject the Tories' message and stick with the Liberal Democrats, who have held the seat since the bizarre death of Conservative incumbent Stephen Milligan in 1994.
On the other hand, the news that Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg is now embroiled in a sex scandal could be very damaging for his party's prospects in Eastleigh.
The by-election was caused by the resignation of former Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne, who was forced to stand down following his conviction for perverting the cause of justice. He has pleaded guilty to charges that he persuaded his former wife, economist Vicky Price, to take his penalty points for a speeding offence in 2003.
Mr Huhne is now almost certainly facing a period in jail when he is sentenced in the coming weeks.
But to compound the embarrassment for the the Liberal Democrats, questions are now being asked about how much Mr Clegg knew about allegations of sexual harrassment levelled against the former Party Chief Executive Lord Rennard.
A Channel Four News investigation has revealed that, prior to his retirement on health grounds in 2009, the Party received complaints that the veteran peer had made improper sexual advances towards several female party workers.
Lord Rennard has strenuously denied any wrong-doing.
But is alleged that both Mr Clegg and Vince Cable, now Business Secretary, were made aware of the claims at the time. And the revelations have raised questions about internal disciplinary procedures within the Liberal Democratic Party machine.
However Mr Clegg's office is insisting that he and Mr Cable only gained knowlege of the Rennard affair when recently approached by Channel Four.
Even if the Lib Dems do hold on to the Hampshire seat, the breaking of this story just days before the voters in Eastleigh go to the polls, is hugely embarrasing for Nick Clegg.
And it is likely to run for some time yet.
Sunday 24 February 2013
Tuesday 5 February 2013
Should Andrew Mitchell Be Re-Instated?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21326604
Has Andrew Mitchell been the victim of a huge stich-up?
Channel Four's Dispatches has endeavoured to uncover the truth over the 'Plebgate' affair.
It is quite clear from the evidence revealed in last night's programme, and the one broadcast in December, that there has been a concerted and vicious campaign, primarilly orchestrated by the Police Federation, to smear Mr Mitchell.
One can only assume that this is the Federation's pathetic way of exacting revenge on the government for making cuts to the Police force.
In my view, framing a hard-working, consciencious Cabinet minister is no way to make a political point. If anything, it will continue to undermine the public's respect for the police.
And it is only fair that those calling most viceforously for Mr Mitchell's sacking are now the subject of disciplinary action.
The CCTV evidence revealed in the two Dispatches programmes clearly shows that there was no altercation between the former Chief Whip and the police at the gates of Downing Street. Moreover, the assertion that there was a crowd of horrified onlookers who witnessed the incident has now been proved to be completely untrue.
It is nothing short of disgraceful that Mr Mitchell was not shown the CCTV footage of the incident which led to his resignation until several weeks afterwards.
Why did the Cabinet Secretary allow this to happen? Surely his position is now untenable?
All this paints David Cameron in a very poor light. He should be the first to admit that Mitchell has been the subject of an appalling injustice.
Am I the only one who thinks that Andrew Mitchell should be immediately re-instated?
Has Andrew Mitchell been the victim of a huge stich-up?
Channel Four's Dispatches has endeavoured to uncover the truth over the 'Plebgate' affair.
It is quite clear from the evidence revealed in last night's programme, and the one broadcast in December, that there has been a concerted and vicious campaign, primarilly orchestrated by the Police Federation, to smear Mr Mitchell.
One can only assume that this is the Federation's pathetic way of exacting revenge on the government for making cuts to the Police force.
In my view, framing a hard-working, consciencious Cabinet minister is no way to make a political point. If anything, it will continue to undermine the public's respect for the police.
And it is only fair that those calling most viceforously for Mr Mitchell's sacking are now the subject of disciplinary action.
The CCTV evidence revealed in the two Dispatches programmes clearly shows that there was no altercation between the former Chief Whip and the police at the gates of Downing Street. Moreover, the assertion that there was a crowd of horrified onlookers who witnessed the incident has now been proved to be completely untrue.
It is nothing short of disgraceful that Mr Mitchell was not shown the CCTV footage of the incident which led to his resignation until several weeks afterwards.
Why did the Cabinet Secretary allow this to happen? Surely his position is now untenable?
All this paints David Cameron in a very poor light. He should be the first to admit that Mitchell has been the subject of an appalling injustice.
Am I the only one who thinks that Andrew Mitchell should be immediately re-instated?
Crunch Time for PM Over Gay Marriage Vote
http://news.sky.com/story/1046321/watchdog-criticises-cameron-for-debt-claim
http://news.sky.com/story/1046532/marriage-tax-breaks-cameron-faces-revolt
http://news.sky.com/story/1046625/gay-marriage-not-the-biggest-issue-for-voters
The issue of gay marriage is clearly very toxic to the Tory Party.
The Prime Minister will not have enjoyed being visited by a group of Constituency Chairs anxious to persuade him not to push legislation through that would redefine marriage as a union between two people, whether it be a man and a woman, two men or two women.
And whilst the Commons vote on the issue will be carried tonight, it is politically disastrous for David Cameron that he will clearly need the support of Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs for it to do so.
There is no doubt that the vote on same-sex marriage will be seen by opponents to the Bill as a huge distraction from the things that really matter to the electorate; in particular unemployment and the economy.
And more importantly, the question is, quite rightly, being asked, that since gay marriage was not part of either the Conservative manifesto or the Coalition Agreement, why is the Prime Minister so keen to push this through?
Cameron has always made his support for same-sex marriage very clear. It is one policy that many who so vehemently oppose his handling of the economy or perhaps his attitude to welfare reform will say he is right to pursue.
Many will applaud the joint statement today from the three most important Cabinet ministers after the Prime Minister - the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary - urging fellow Tory MPs who are still undecided to support the move.
But the decision to shelve introducing tax-breaks for married couples, whilst insisting on driving through legislation on gay marriage, has really angered many Conservative activists and traditional supporters.
This will be seen by many as very muddled thinking, to say the least.
The question is, how divided will the Conservative Party be after tonight's vote?
At constituency level, the mere suggestion that the laws on marriage should be changed has led to many members deserting the Party in droves. And with so many MPs - as many as 100 - intending to vote against the legislation, how secure will David Cameron's position as leader be after today?
There has already been much talk and rumour about the possibility of a stalking-horse challenge to Cameron from the back-benches.
He is clearly beset with problems a the moment.
Tonight's vote comes just days after critism from the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Andrew Dilnot, over the Coalition's handling of the economy and the PM's claims that they are dealing with the country's debts.
In the Conservative's latest political broadcast, Cameron boasted that the national debt had come down, when it has so obviously has not.
Yes, the decifit has been reduced since the coalition took office, but the UK's debt has actually been rising, a point that the PM blatantly fails to acknowledge.
Inevitably this has provoked a furious response from the Labour frontbench, with Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Rachel Reeves accusing Mr Cameron of misleading the British people.
With both Cameron and Osborne looking increasingly incompetent on their handling of the economy, the last thing they need is a damaging split in the Party on the institution of marriage.
http://news.sky.com/story/1046532/marriage-tax-breaks-cameron-faces-revolt
http://news.sky.com/story/1046625/gay-marriage-not-the-biggest-issue-for-voters
The issue of gay marriage is clearly very toxic to the Tory Party.
The Prime Minister will not have enjoyed being visited by a group of Constituency Chairs anxious to persuade him not to push legislation through that would redefine marriage as a union between two people, whether it be a man and a woman, two men or two women.
And whilst the Commons vote on the issue will be carried tonight, it is politically disastrous for David Cameron that he will clearly need the support of Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs for it to do so.
There is no doubt that the vote on same-sex marriage will be seen by opponents to the Bill as a huge distraction from the things that really matter to the electorate; in particular unemployment and the economy.
And more importantly, the question is, quite rightly, being asked, that since gay marriage was not part of either the Conservative manifesto or the Coalition Agreement, why is the Prime Minister so keen to push this through?
Cameron has always made his support for same-sex marriage very clear. It is one policy that many who so vehemently oppose his handling of the economy or perhaps his attitude to welfare reform will say he is right to pursue.
Many will applaud the joint statement today from the three most important Cabinet ministers after the Prime Minister - the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary - urging fellow Tory MPs who are still undecided to support the move.
But the decision to shelve introducing tax-breaks for married couples, whilst insisting on driving through legislation on gay marriage, has really angered many Conservative activists and traditional supporters.
This will be seen by many as very muddled thinking, to say the least.
The question is, how divided will the Conservative Party be after tonight's vote?
At constituency level, the mere suggestion that the laws on marriage should be changed has led to many members deserting the Party in droves. And with so many MPs - as many as 100 - intending to vote against the legislation, how secure will David Cameron's position as leader be after today?
There has already been much talk and rumour about the possibility of a stalking-horse challenge to Cameron from the back-benches.
He is clearly beset with problems a the moment.
Tonight's vote comes just days after critism from the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Andrew Dilnot, over the Coalition's handling of the economy and the PM's claims that they are dealing with the country's debts.
In the Conservative's latest political broadcast, Cameron boasted that the national debt had come down, when it has so obviously has not.
Yes, the decifit has been reduced since the coalition took office, but the UK's debt has actually been rising, a point that the PM blatantly fails to acknowledge.
Inevitably this has provoked a furious response from the Labour frontbench, with Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Rachel Reeves accusing Mr Cameron of misleading the British people.
With both Cameron and Osborne looking increasingly incompetent on their handling of the economy, the last thing they need is a damaging split in the Party on the institution of marriage.
Friday 1 February 2013
PM's 2015 Majority Hopes Dashed After Boundaries Vote Defeat
http://news.sky.com/story/1044622/boundary-vote-mps-reject-planned-changes
http://labourlist.org/2013/01/david-cameron-just-lost-the-2015-election
David Cameron's chances of winning an outright majority at the next election have been dramatically dashed.
It follows a defeat on a measure allowing for changes in constituency boundaries; effective in 2015, which would have possibly meant the Conservatives gaining as many as twenty seats, thus giving them an overall majority in the House of Commons.
The Liberal Democrats helped to inflict this defeat on the Prime Minister, following the collapse of House of Lords reform, a key part of the Coalition agreement.
But the failure of legislation that could have given the Tories considerably more seats at the next election has greatly diminished Cameron's chances of governing without the help of other parties.
Cameron now requires a huge lead in the share of the vote in 2015 to achieve even the smallest majority. With their popularity at an all-time low, a result of this magnitude must seem surely nigh-impossible.
Labour is still very far away from winning the voters' trust, especially on the economy. They have also yet to set out in detail many of the policies on which they will fight the next election. Their lead in the polls is based almost wholly on voters' dissatisfaction with the government, rather than what Labour are currently communicating to the people.
But even with Labour doing badly, the chances of the Tories forming the next government are now even more compromised.
The Tories being forced to fight the next election on the old boundaries is yet more evidence of huge cracks within the government. On current poll-ratings, another Conservative-Lib Dem coalition cannot be ruled out as a possible result. But it is evident that Cameron and his Party can't wait to be shot of their Lib Dem junior partners; behind the smiles and bravado, there are just too many differences between the two parties for the current arrangements to anything more than a one-term wonder.
But if the polls are right, without the change in constituency boundaries that he so desperately needed for an overall win, the best outcome Cameron can hope for in 2015 is to share power again.
http://labourlist.org/2013/01/david-cameron-just-lost-the-2015-election
David Cameron's chances of winning an outright majority at the next election have been dramatically dashed.
It follows a defeat on a measure allowing for changes in constituency boundaries; effective in 2015, which would have possibly meant the Conservatives gaining as many as twenty seats, thus giving them an overall majority in the House of Commons.
The Liberal Democrats helped to inflict this defeat on the Prime Minister, following the collapse of House of Lords reform, a key part of the Coalition agreement.
But the failure of legislation that could have given the Tories considerably more seats at the next election has greatly diminished Cameron's chances of governing without the help of other parties.
Cameron now requires a huge lead in the share of the vote in 2015 to achieve even the smallest majority. With their popularity at an all-time low, a result of this magnitude must seem surely nigh-impossible.
Labour is still very far away from winning the voters' trust, especially on the economy. They have also yet to set out in detail many of the policies on which they will fight the next election. Their lead in the polls is based almost wholly on voters' dissatisfaction with the government, rather than what Labour are currently communicating to the people.
But even with Labour doing badly, the chances of the Tories forming the next government are now even more compromised.
The Tories being forced to fight the next election on the old boundaries is yet more evidence of huge cracks within the government. On current poll-ratings, another Conservative-Lib Dem coalition cannot be ruled out as a possible result. But it is evident that Cameron and his Party can't wait to be shot of their Lib Dem junior partners; behind the smiles and bravado, there are just too many differences between the two parties for the current arrangements to anything more than a one-term wonder.
But if the polls are right, without the change in constituency boundaries that he so desperately needed for an overall win, the best outcome Cameron can hope for in 2015 is to share power again.
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