UK Still In Limbo After General Election

Hard to believe what has happened since the General Election.

The British Political system has been turned upside down with the resulting Hung Parliament.

Even if a Conservative-LibDem coalition does prevail in the short term, I don't think it will last more than a year or two.  There are too many members of both parties who will be very unhappy with such an arrangement.

The offer by the Conservatives to have a vote on AV will not satisfy the majority of Lib Dem members who want PR and will see any agreement by Clegg with the Tories on this basis as a sell-out.  And those in the Tory Party vehemently opposed to a change to the current FPPS sysem will be equally angry.

Both Cameron and Clegg are putting their necks on the line.  Cameron even more so, as there is huge disquiet in the Tory party at his failure to win a majority after such a concerted effort to convince the electorate that the Conservatives have changed since 1997.  Clearly most people do not think so.

I would much prefer to see a rainbow coalition between Labour, the Lib Dems and the other smaller parties, rather than one between the Tories and the Lib Dems, but the arithmetic for the former does not stand up and they would have only the thinnest of majorities.

I also feel that with Gordon Brown standing down as Labour Leader, a leadership election will be a distraction for Labour in their efforts to form a stable coalition government.

I think the most likely outcome will be a short-term Lib Dem Tory coalition with fresh elections within a year.

That will give Labour a chance to re-group in Oppostion, emerging under a new leader with a fresh mandate ready to face the Tories in new elections just months away.