http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9770710/Its-two-years-away-but-the-2015-election-is-already-lost.html
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/01/03/looking-to-history/
It would seem David Cameron's chances of victory in 2015 are looking increasingly slim.
If the commentators are right, there are a number of factors that have considerably altered the political landscape since the Conservatives emerged as the largest party at the 2010 General Election.
The latest opinion polls are putting UKIP in third place, ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time. If these results were repeated in the next election, the Tories would lose as many as 40-50 seats and almost certainly relinquish power. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2257797/UKIP-surge-set-cost-Tories-51-seats--Miliband-victory-Stunning-blow-Cameron-poll-says-hell-lost-dozens-MPs-Labour-landslide.html.
So is this just government mid-term blues, or something more terminal?
Political analysts are beginning to suggest that the latter is the most likely outcome and when it is The Daily Telegraph and Conservative Home that are predicting defeat for Mr Cameron in 2015, then the Prime Minister cannot afford to ignore the warnings.
The Tory Party Chairman, Grant Shapps, predictably, was very quick to dismiss the latest poll results as a temporary protest on the part of their supporters. And Mr Cameron together with his deputy, Nick Clegg, have once again staged a re-launch of the Coalition, just over half way through its five-year term.
But it may take more than warm words and sound-bites to change the way the wind is blowing.
It is looking increasingly likely that Labour will emerge at least with the largest number of seats at the next election, if not an overall majority.
So what could stand in the way of Mr Cameron winning outright in 2015?
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Paul Goodman, executive editor of Conservative Home, believes that the outcome of the next election is already decided and suggests four major reasons why Cameron will not win an overall majority.
Firstly, one can cite the Conservatives' failure to win over ethnic-minority voters. In 2010, only 16% voted for them, not much of an increase from 10% in 2001. The Prime Minister has appointed Alok Sharma MP as vice-chairman to try and encourage more more minority-support but so far this tactic has not born any fruit, with the share of the vote likely to go down next time, not up. Cameron will be mindful of the fact that several years of having Saaeda Warsi as co-Chair of the party did little to attract ethnic minority support in 2010, so it is unlikely the new vice-chairman will really make a difference. As with Mitt Romney in the US, Cameron's message has only resonated so far with white Middle England and not with the population as a whole.
It would also seem that Cameron's insistence on pushing through proposals to legalise same-sex marriage will have highly negative consequences. There was no mention of these proposals in either the Tories' or Liberal Democrats' manifestoes in 2010, or in their Coalition agreement. This has really riled those MPs on Tory right and more importantly, a large majority of the 'conservative' grass-roots. It is these voters whose support Cameron needs to retain if he is to stay in Downing Street.
The rise of UKIP is also likely have an adverse effect on the Tory vote in 2015. Whilst they may not win any seats next time, as well as now being viewed as an alternative for those wishing to see the UK leave the EU, UKIP has emerged as a voice for discontented voters unhappy with current policies on immigration and crime, not to mention those against same-sex marriage.
Farage has very shrewdly presented UKIP as the party many Tories used to vote for. Just as the formation of the SDP in the 1980s split the Labour Party and helped Margaret Thatcher to win a huge majority in 1983, UKIP is doing exactly the same to the Tory vote. And whilst no Tory big-hitter is yet to defect to UKIP, they are bound to increase their share of the vote in 2015.
The third problem for Cameron is that disunity amonst the Left of British politics is, for once, almost non-existent. And here is the big boost for Ed Miliband; traditional Liberal Democrats have deserted the party in droves since the last election and are now backing Labour. It is unlikely that Miliband will be able to convince enough Tory voters to switch directly to Labour in 2015, but he doesn't need to; if enough former Liberal Democrat voters support Miliband, then he is home and dry. Going on current poll-ratings, he will easily win a 30% share of the vote, if not more.
The fourth factor which could undermine the Conservatives' chances of outright victory is demographic. Current constituency boundaries are more likely to benefit Labour. The Tories' will need to lead Labour by seven points in 2015 to scrape even a bare majority.
So is the outcome of the next General Election already determined?
With the economy also yet to show any signs of recovery, Mr Cameron's days at Number 10 may very well be numbered.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/01/03/looking-to-history/
It would seem David Cameron's chances of victory in 2015 are looking increasingly slim.
If the commentators are right, there are a number of factors that have considerably altered the political landscape since the Conservatives emerged as the largest party at the 2010 General Election.
The latest opinion polls are putting UKIP in third place, ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time. If these results were repeated in the next election, the Tories would lose as many as 40-50 seats and almost certainly relinquish power. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2257797/UKIP-surge-set-cost-Tories-51-seats--Miliband-victory-Stunning-blow-Cameron-poll-says-hell-lost-dozens-MPs-Labour-landslide.html.
So is this just government mid-term blues, or something more terminal?
Political analysts are beginning to suggest that the latter is the most likely outcome and when it is The Daily Telegraph and Conservative Home that are predicting defeat for Mr Cameron in 2015, then the Prime Minister cannot afford to ignore the warnings.
The Tory Party Chairman, Grant Shapps, predictably, was very quick to dismiss the latest poll results as a temporary protest on the part of their supporters. And Mr Cameron together with his deputy, Nick Clegg, have once again staged a re-launch of the Coalition, just over half way through its five-year term.
But it may take more than warm words and sound-bites to change the way the wind is blowing.
It is looking increasingly likely that Labour will emerge at least with the largest number of seats at the next election, if not an overall majority.
So what could stand in the way of Mr Cameron winning outright in 2015?
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Paul Goodman, executive editor of Conservative Home, believes that the outcome of the next election is already decided and suggests four major reasons why Cameron will not win an overall majority.
Firstly, one can cite the Conservatives' failure to win over ethnic-minority voters. In 2010, only 16% voted for them, not much of an increase from 10% in 2001. The Prime Minister has appointed Alok Sharma MP as vice-chairman to try and encourage more more minority-support but so far this tactic has not born any fruit, with the share of the vote likely to go down next time, not up. Cameron will be mindful of the fact that several years of having Saaeda Warsi as co-Chair of the party did little to attract ethnic minority support in 2010, so it is unlikely the new vice-chairman will really make a difference. As with Mitt Romney in the US, Cameron's message has only resonated so far with white Middle England and not with the population as a whole.
It would also seem that Cameron's insistence on pushing through proposals to legalise same-sex marriage will have highly negative consequences. There was no mention of these proposals in either the Tories' or Liberal Democrats' manifestoes in 2010, or in their Coalition agreement. This has really riled those MPs on Tory right and more importantly, a large majority of the 'conservative' grass-roots. It is these voters whose support Cameron needs to retain if he is to stay in Downing Street.
The rise of UKIP is also likely have an adverse effect on the Tory vote in 2015. Whilst they may not win any seats next time, as well as now being viewed as an alternative for those wishing to see the UK leave the EU, UKIP has emerged as a voice for discontented voters unhappy with current policies on immigration and crime, not to mention those against same-sex marriage.
Farage has very shrewdly presented UKIP as the party many Tories used to vote for. Just as the formation of the SDP in the 1980s split the Labour Party and helped Margaret Thatcher to win a huge majority in 1983, UKIP is doing exactly the same to the Tory vote. And whilst no Tory big-hitter is yet to defect to UKIP, they are bound to increase their share of the vote in 2015.
The third problem for Cameron is that disunity amonst the Left of British politics is, for once, almost non-existent. And here is the big boost for Ed Miliband; traditional Liberal Democrats have deserted the party in droves since the last election and are now backing Labour. It is unlikely that Miliband will be able to convince enough Tory voters to switch directly to Labour in 2015, but he doesn't need to; if enough former Liberal Democrat voters support Miliband, then he is home and dry. Going on current poll-ratings, he will easily win a 30% share of the vote, if not more.
The fourth factor which could undermine the Conservatives' chances of outright victory is demographic. Current constituency boundaries are more likely to benefit Labour. The Tories' will need to lead Labour by seven points in 2015 to scrape even a bare majority.
So is the outcome of the next General Election already determined?
With the economy also yet to show any signs of recovery, Mr Cameron's days at Number 10 may very well be numbered.
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