Friday 1 March 2013

Eastleigh Result Disaster Poses Huge Dilemma For PM

Last night's by-election result in Eastleigh was unquestionably a calamity for David Cameron and the Conservative Party.
Former leadership contender David Davis had earlier warned the Prime Minister that coming third in Eastleigh would be a disaster for the Tories and plunge the Party into crisis.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9897845/Losing-to-Ukip-in-Eastleigh-would-cause-crisis-for-Tories-says-David-Davis.html
But Mr Cameron was very quick to dismiss the outcome as a 'protest' vote and and insisted this was nothing more than mid-term blues. http://news.sky.com/story/1058520/eastleigh-lib-dems-win-tories-fall-to-third. In the wake of what was a terrible result for them and candidate Maria Hutchings, he rejected calls for the party to change direction and lurch to the right; a position that was swiftly supported by Education Secretary Michael Gove.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9902155/David-Cameron-No-lurch-to-the-right-following-Eastleigh-result.html
However, the surprisingly spectacular performance of UKIP, coming a very close second to Liberal Democrat victor Mike Thornton, has to be a huge worry for the Tories.  The Hampshire seat is one which they must take back in 2015 to have any chance of winning an overall majority.
Given the closeness of the result, the fact that Diane James didn't actually snatch the Eastleigh seat for UKIP, could be attributed solely to the Party's failure to secure those vital few extra postal votes needed to ensure victory - a point that leader Nigel Farage immediately acknowledged.  Had they done so, then UKIP's first member of Parliament might just have been on their way to Westminster right now.
So what went wrong for the Tories?
David Cameron's pledge to hold a referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU after the next election has obviously not appeased the voters sufficiently for them to return a Conservative MP to Eastleigh for the first time in nearly 20 years. The massive increase in support for UKIP in recent months is reflected in the fact that most UK voters want a referendum sooner rather than later and none of the three main parties are offering this to the British people.  It will be no surprise at all if, UKIP continue to gain this degree of momentum between now and the next election, they do win seats in 2015. Indeed, the Conservatives would be very foolish to dismiss them as purely a party of protest. UKIP clearly are a serious threat to David Cameron and his Party.
http://news.sky.com/story/1058779/eastleigh-flamboyant-farage-is-on-the-march
The loss of Britain's AAA credit-rating will almost certainly had a hand in the result, despite the Prime Minister's lame attempts to play it down at this week's PMQs.  Voters could very well be beginning to question George Osborne's handling of the economy, despite his absolute insistence that the Coalition must not change course and stick to its program of austerity to bring Britain's deficit down. Indeed, as the UK edges closer to 2015, it will become increasingly difficult for the Prime Minister and Chancellor to avoid taking responsibility for the course of the economy. The next Budget is now just a few weeks away, and will be absolutely crucial if Mr Osborne is to show that he has the political nous to turn things around.http://news.sky.com/story/1055980/osborne-needs-to-show-he-has-got-a-grip
A more troubling issue for the Tories is that a pledge to protect Britain's AAA rating was a central plank of their Party's manifesto at the last general election. Failure to keep this promise is a devastating illustration of economic incompetence on the part of George Osborne and David Cameron.  Having already presided over a double-dip recession, they will have a much more difficult job, between now and the next election, convincing people that it is they, and not the Opposition, who still have the right prescription for dealing with the UK's huge economic problems come the next time this country goes to the polls.
The current state of the UK economy appears to have been a far more significant factor in determining the outcome of one of the most closely-watched by-elections in years than the recent woes of the Liberal Democrats.
Of course Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg will be reflecting today on his Party holding on to the seat with a greatly-reduced majority.  But it is local issues - and the popularity of the Lib Dem-run local council - that appear to have been uppermost in voters' minds, rather than the reason for the by-election itself; former MP and Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne's conviction for perverting the course of justice and his inevitable susequent resignation.
And the scandal over the alleged sexual impropriety of former Lib Dem Chief Executive Lord Rennard - with questions raised over whether Mr Clegg and other senior figures deliberately ignored the complaints of several female party workers on the receiving end of the peer's behaviour - did not prevent their man from claiming an extraordinary victory. http://news.sky.com/story/1057915/lord-rennard-several-call-police-hotline
For Labour, Eastleigh was never going to a winnable seat.  But coming fourth will have been a very bitter pill to swallow.  This result shows that they have an awful lot of work to do to attract the support from constituencies which are not in Labour heartlands they desperately need to win back power.   Furthermore, the Party's cause will have definitely been undermined by their not having a local candidate and even further so by London resident John O'Farrell's disgraceful previous expression of sorrow that Margaret Thatcher was not killed in the 1984 Brighton Bomb.  Ed Miliband's immediate refusal to unequivocally condemn these appalling remarks are further black marks against him. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I1Bp3hiInE&feature=youtube_gdata
But it is definitely the Conservatives who have been left with the most to think about following this by-election.  UKIP have shown they are listening to the British people in a way David Cameron's party, at present, clearly are not.
And, frankly, if the Tories cannot win seats like Eastleigh, they have no hope of a majority in 2015.

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