Tuesday 5 February 2013

Crunch Time for PM Over Gay Marriage Vote

http://news.sky.com/story/1046321/watchdog-criticises-cameron-for-debt-claim
http://news.sky.com/story/1046532/marriage-tax-breaks-cameron-faces-revolt
http://news.sky.com/story/1046625/gay-marriage-not-the-biggest-issue-for-voters

The issue of gay marriage is clearly very toxic to the Tory Party.

The Prime Minister will not have enjoyed being visited by a group of Constituency Chairs anxious to persuade him not to push legislation through that would redefine marriage as a union between two people, whether it be a man and a woman, two men or two women.

And whilst the Commons vote on the issue will be carried tonight, it is politically disastrous for David Cameron that he will clearly need the support of Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs for it to do so.

There is no doubt that the vote on same-sex marriage will be seen by opponents to the Bill as a huge distraction from the things that really matter to the electorate; in particular unemployment and the economy.

And more importantly, the question is, quite rightly, being asked, that since gay marriage was not part of either the Conservative manifesto or the Coalition Agreement, why is the Prime Minister so keen to push this through?

Cameron has always made his support for same-sex marriage very clear.  It is one policy that many who so vehemently oppose his handling of the economy or perhaps his attitude to welfare reform will say he is right to pursue.

Many will applaud the joint statement today from the three most important Cabinet ministers after the Prime Minister - the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary - urging fellow Tory MPs who are still undecided to support the move.

But the decision to shelve introducing tax-breaks for married couples, whilst insisting on driving through legislation on gay marriage, has really angered many Conservative activists and traditional supporters.

This will be seen by many as very muddled thinking, to say the least.

The question is, how divided will the Conservative Party be after tonight's vote?

At constituency level, the mere suggestion that the laws on marriage should be changed has led to many members deserting the Party in droves. And with so many MPs - as many as 100 - intending to vote against the legislation, how secure will David Cameron's position as leader be after today?

There has already been much talk and rumour about the possibility of a stalking-horse challenge to Cameron from the back-benches.

He is clearly beset with problems a the moment.

Tonight's vote comes just days after critism from the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Andrew Dilnot, over the Coalition's handling of the economy and the PM's claims that they are dealing with the country's debts.

In the Conservative's latest political broadcast, Cameron boasted that the national debt had come down, when it has so obviously has not.

Yes, the decifit has been reduced since the coalition took office, but the UK's debt has actually been rising, a point that the PM blatantly fails to acknowledge.

Inevitably this has provoked a furious response from the Labour frontbench, with Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Rachel Reeves accusing Mr Cameron of misleading the British people.

With both Cameron and Osborne looking increasingly incompetent on their handling of the economy, the last thing they need is a damaging split in the Party on the institution of marriage.

 

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