Rise In Lib Dem Support Opens Up Debate On Electoral Reform

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8643955.stm

I have always been in favour of the First Past the Post voting system as it has, on nearly all occasions, led to a decisive majority for one party.

As a result we have a strong government able to successfully push through its agenda without having to rely on the support of smaller more extreme or fringe parties to do so.

We only have to look at last year's Euro Elections to see how the more proportional voting system used led to the election of two BNP candidates to the European Parliament.

That is a very strong argument against changing our current system of electing MPs.

However, is it really fair that one party should win a majority of seats in the House of Commons with the support of less than half of the electorate?

And is it right, if the results of recent opinion polls are to be believed, that a party who gains only the third-largest share of the popular vote still can win more Parliamentary seats than a party who has the greater support of the electorate?

The huge rise in support for the Lib Dems has raised very important issues about the fairness of our current electoral system.

Labour has already promised a referendum on replacing the First Past the Post system, should they win a fourth term in government.

It is high time Electoral Reform was given greater priority on the political agenda.

Message On The Doorsteps Indicates Election Result Still Very Uncertain

We've not seen anything like it in nearly twenty years.

The outcome of a UK general election has not been so unpredictable since 1992.

Even today, speaking to party members from the local CLP, the message from the doorsteps is that whilst there is a lot of dissatisfaction amongst the voters with Gordon Brown, people are definitely not sure about Cameron either.

There is still comparatively little discussion in the media of the main political issues that really matter to the electorate and an inane obsession with personalities.  

We will wait to see how Thursday's final debate goes for the three Leaders.

The huge rise in support for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is a totally unexpected development, but the anomalies in our voting system mean that in order for his party to come second, a larger swing from either the Tories or Labour to the Liberal Democrats is required than is needed from Labour to the Tories.  This is something that has been grossly overlooked by the main TV news stations and the newspapers.

There are too many people out there who still have to make up their minds.

Cameron's Election Proposals For Unelected PM Not Thought-Out

David Cameron has put forward  proposals on whether and when to hold a fresh general election should the leader of the governing party change midway through a parliament.

However, like all of the other Tory policy ideas, these have not been thought through.

He is suggesting that a new general election must be held within six months of a new leader taking over. But is this really necessary in all circumstances?

Let's take Labour's landslide victory in 1997.  Tony Blair wins the election for Labour with a whopping 179 seat majority.

What if, God forbid, something had happened to Blair within say, a few weeks of taking office?  The country had only given Labour a huge mandate to govern very recently.  The mood of the nation would not have changed so radically in such a short space of time.  It would have been totally unnecessary to ask the electorate to go to the polls twice within twelve months.

Cameron is ignoring the fact that we have a Parliamentary, not a Presidential system. The people vote in general elections for a party, not a Party leader.  It is therefore a political party who is given the mandate to govern. A party manifesto lays out its programme for a five-year parliamentary term.

I wonder whether the Tory leader would be making such an issue of this had his party been in power. John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher in 1990, a year and a half before the 1992 general election.  Nobody questioned his mandate to govern until then.

So in my view, it should not matter if a party changes leader during a parliament.

This is a vain attempt by Cameron to score political points by implying that the Labour Party are less democratic than they claim to be.

However, raising this issue does underline the need for certain reforms.  I have long believed that we should have fixed-term parliaments.  So the people will know precisely when an election will be that even if a governing party changes its leader during a parliament.

One solution could be to adopt an US-style system and have each party choosing a two-person ticket to run at each election.

That way, if a leader does not complete a full term of office and there is a change during a parliament for whatever reason, the electorate is aware of who will assume power should this situation arise and the same party is allowed to continue governing until the next election.

Brown Gives Most-Improved Performance In Second TV Debate As Cameron Fails To Land Knockout Punch

Gordon Brown gave a strong performance in the second Prime Ministerial debate.

He was clearly most-improved of the three leaders after last week's first round.

This was typical Gordon, effective where it mattered; on policy and substance.

The Prime Minister's opening statement set the scene for the night, focussing on the vital issues of the economy and jobs.

And he showed too, that he is leading the way on global issues like climate change.

Nick Clegg was no where near as on top of his game as he was in the first debate.

The electorate were even more keenly watching David Cameron, to see if he could up his game after last week's dismal display.  But he failed to deliver.

He simply did not land that fatal blow against the opposition that was badly needed to revitalise his campaign.

We have now had two debates and on each occasion, the Tory leader has failed to capitalise on his lead in the polls.

If he is going to win the election, then he should have turned things more decisively in his favour by now.

It shows that for all his presentation skills, Cameron has no answers to the questions that really matter to the British people.

Gordon Brown, on the other hand, has concentrated on the policy issues that are really important.

That is why he will win the day on May 6.

Clegg's Bubble Set To Burst As He Becomes Victim Of Smear Campaign

Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg has enjoyed a huge surge in support since his performance in last week's Prime Ministerial debate.

Now, allegations about Mr Clegg are dominating the headlines; the most serious of which suggest that donations to the Lib Dems found their way into his own bank account.  I am convinced that this is an attempt  by the Tory-supporting Daily Telegraph to undermine his position and try and bolster David Cameron's flagging campaign.

Mr Clegg now has a fight on his hands if he wants to maintain his strong standing in the opinion polls and guarantee his position as king-maker, in the event of a hung parliament.  Such negative headlines about him can only benefit the other two parties and perhaps even ensure that either Labour or the Conservatives have a majority come May 7.

All eyes will be on Bristol for tonight's second debate.  Even though he has now been exposed as someone with no substance to him whatsoever, I  would be amazed if Mr Cameron has not analysed his poor performance last week and does not at least appear to come across better this time.

And despite it being inevitable that he will  be asked to comment on Government policy on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,  I am sure Gordon Brown will be well prepared and answer any questions as competently this time as he did  in the first debate.

Nick Clegg will not emerge as the winner again.

Polls Show Election Too Close To Call As Media Are Swept Up By Clegg-Mania

The latest opinion polls have given a huge boost to Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, thanks to his competent performance in last week's Leaders' debate.

Some results have now pushed Labour into third place, even though it is widely accepted that Gordon Brown did far better last Thursday than many people expected.

But with the current ratings of the three main parties so close together can we really read anything significant into this?

Any polling expert will tell you that such results always carry a +/-3-5% margin of error. So when I see headlines claiming that Mr Clegg has suddenly become the man of the moment on the basis of no more than one or two percentage points' difference between the three parties, I do react with a very considerable amount of cynicism.

Even if they are currently in third place in the polls, the main anomaly of our First-past-the-post-system means that Labour could still emerge as the largest party after the election, if not with an overall majority.  There is still over two weeks to go before polling day and the result of the election is still too close to call.

I would like to see fewer polls published during election campaigns; perhaps done on a weekly rather than a daily basis.  Too many surveys only serve to give a very distorted picture of what the electorate are really  thinking.

Mr Clegg may have done well in last week's encounter, but we should reserve judgement on the leaders' overall performances until all three debates have taken place.

The media are doing what they always do; focussing on personalities rather than the policies the parties have to offer.

And by placing so much emphasis on daily opinion polls, it has become the norm for journalists and commentators to try and turn voter intentions and behaviour into an exact science; just so they can produce slick headlines.

First PM TV Debate Sees Brown Exceed Expectations As Cameron Flops

History has now been made with the very first televised Prime Ministerial debate going to air. 

The consensus amongst the pollsters, journalists and commentators is that the Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg came out on top. Gordon Brown did far better than expected.  Meanwhile, David Cameron totally floundered.

Mr Clegg certainly was very relaxed during the debate, looking directly at the camera when he gave his responses and being very critical of the two main parties and their leaders whenever he had the opportunity.

However, the Liberal Democrat leader knows that, even if the polls are right, with a hung parliament the result after 6 May and he does hold the balance of power, he is never going to be Prime Minister. So he can afford to make bolder and more radical statements that he thinks the public will like.

This was David Cameron's big chance to capitalise on the lead he currently has in the opinion polls.  But he blew it. Much of what he said was uninspiring and predictable.   He had the opportunity to spell out in more detail what he would do to protect public services and rebuild the economy but he didn't take it. This will only serve to reinforce the view of his political opponents and many undecided voters that he is all style and no substance.

In contrast, I was pleasantly surprised at Mr Brown's performance in the debate.  I'm sure I was not alone amongst the electorate in thinking that he would struggle under the pressure of the live format.  However, as soon as he began his opening statement, I knew this was going to be a good night for him.

Not once did he stammer.  He answered all the questions confidently and with brilliant statesman-like authority.

And when he repeatedly challenged the Tory leader on what damage cutting the budget deficit too quickly would do to the recovery, Cameron crucially did not fight back.

And coming across so strongly on the economy in the first round will stand Mr Brown in good stead with that debate still to come. He is bound to do well in this, against the magnificent backdrop of  successfully leading Britain out of recession.

And I now have real cause for optimism on how Brown will do in the foreign affairs debate too.

I believe we may have seen a turning point in the campaign.

This was not a good night for David Cameron. He has been exposed as superficial and directionless. He was left very much on the backfoot and now has a lot of ground to make up if he wants the keys to 10 Downing St.

And despite what they may say publicly, he and the Conservative Party know it.

First Election Leadership Debate Crucial For Brown's Chances of Victory

Tonight's debate between the three main political party leaders, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, will be a first in British political history.

Televised debates have been a key feature of  US Presidential elections for the last fifty years. But in the UK, there has always been strong resistance to them.

There is no doubt that all three men will be nervous and accutely aware that any slip-up, whether verbal or non-verbal, could spell the end of their chances at the ballot box.

So far David Cameron has focussed much more on style than on substance and not given much away in terms of  policy detail.  I wonder whether he will come unstuck in the debates when those asking the questions demand much fuller answers from him on what he will actually do if he become Prime Minister.

But currently behind in the polls, a strong performance is most imperative from Gordon Brown, who unlike David Cameron, is not comfortable under the piercing media spotlight. One can only hope that the coaching he has been receiving from Tony Blair's Communication's director, Alastair Campbell, will bear fruit during tonight's event.

This evening will be a defining moment in the campaign and Labour's fortunes in the election. Every Labour Party member and supporter in the country will be hoping the Prime Minister gives a strong performance and wishing him well.

Mandelson's Analysis Of Conservative Manifesto Hits The Nail On The Head

http://www2.labour.org.uk/tories-were-all-in-this-together-mandelson

Once again, Peter Mandelson has got it absolutely right, in summing up the Tories and their Campaign.

Their much-awaited manifesto was heralded by David Cameron as the way forward, getting everyone involved in important decisions.

But really it amounts to nothing more than patronising, vacuous drivel.

No mention of how to keep Britain in recovery. No mention of where cuts in spending will be.

The British people will not be fooled by this.

Labour Manifesto Keeps Britain On The Right Path

Labour have launched their election manifesto promising to continue the work of the last 13 years; improving our public services and keeping Britain on the road to economic recovery.

This was widely expected.

What won my attention was the Party's pledges on electoral reform.  They have promised a referendum on the Alternative Vote - postponed as a result of the 'wash-up' at the end of the last parliament - which will bring the number of seats won by a party in direct line with the percentage of votes cast. It will bring an end to the absurd situation we have now, of a party winning the largest number of seats in the House of Commons on less than 50% of the vote, as has been the case in so many previous elections. If  the results of the most recent opinion polls were to be reflected in the actual result on May 6, either the Conservatives or Labour could win power on less than 40% of the popular vote, which is just plain wrong.

Gordon Brown has promised to also bring in fixed-term parliaments. This is a measure which is long overdue. It would bring an abrupt halt to endless media speculation on when a Prime Minister is likely to call an election and most important,  would allow politicians to get on with the business of governing without unnecessary distractions.  

Labour's Election Message Reiterated In New Broadcast

Labour's latest election broadcast has hit just the right note.

Gordon Brown has set us on the right path. We are on the road to economic recovery.

A Conservative Government will take us back into recession and will wreck our public services.

We must stick to the same course and ensure this does not happen.

Peter Mandelson On How The Tories Are Unravelling

  Lord Mandelson's excellent analysis of the state of the Tory Party one week into the election campaign.

The Tories say they have changed.  But this week provided yet another example of how they haven't. In 2001 and 2005 the Tories spent the first week of their campaign proposing unfunded tax cuts – capturing headlines in the process. In the weeks following, they saw the basis of their plans for the economy unravel, and the risk they posed to the economy exposed. In 2010 the Tories have decided to repeat the same trick but are hoping this time for a different outcome.  They claim they are making the running, when actually they are making it up as they go along. Once again, the Tories are confusing publicity with credibility. In doing so, they are muddying their message.  Deficit reduction was apparently their No.1 priority before the election started.  Now they have ditched their tough message and chosen instead to go for the 'soft' option of an unfunded tax giveaway at a cost of £30 billion – in addition to all the other unfunded tax promises they have made. They will now struggle to claim that they will cut the deficit further, while arguing that they will maintain spending on public services, and find the money for the tax cuts.   This three card Tory con trick – cutting the deficit further, sustaining spending and unfunded tax cuts – is all starting to look very hollow. People in the country know you don't get something for nothing.  Common sense will tell them if you are being offered something that is too good to be true, it is, indeed, too good to be true. The Tories' economic plans are a slow burning fuse under their campaign As in 2001 and 2005, the incoherence of Tory tax and spending plans is the slow burning fuse under the Tory campaign, and we do not need to rush our fences in detonating it. This week, we started to put Tory spending plans under scrutiny. We challenged th e Tories to set out how they would pay for the £30 billion commitment to cancel next year's NICs increase. They want to keep it quiet until the emergency Budget George Osborne wants to give in June. But pressure is mounting on the Tories' spending plans.  Martin Read, their own adviser, has been clear that the Tories do have secret plans for how they'd go about cutting spending – they just won't publish them. In the meantime, George Osborne says it will all be paid for out of "efficiencies".  Cameron contradicted him, admitting that cuts in core public spending would have to be made, only for Osborne to repeat his line a few hours later. So it is our task to expose what the Tories wish to conceal and the risk they pose to recovery and to services.  And, as in 2001 and 2005, we have the time to do it.  We are only four days into a four week campaign. The Tories' risk to economic recovery This week saw more encouraging signs of how we have embarked on the road to recovery. Independent figures this week showed manufacturing bouncing back strongly in February with output rising 1.3 per cent on the month in February, almost twice as fast as economists' 0.7 per cent forecasts and its fastest pace for five months. Car figures this week showed a much better than anticipated first quarter in 2010 – with car registrations up by 26.6 per cent from this time last year – helped by the scrappage scheme.  Land Rover announced its UK sales in March saw their monthly sales at an all-time record in their home market.  My good friend, Marks and Spencer boss Stuart Rose, also announced strong growth in UK sales in the first quarter of 2010.  And the OECD predicted this week that the UK economy will grow at the second fastest rate of the G7 major economies for the second quarter of this year. But the OECD also stressed that the recovery r emains fragile and that policy support should not be removed too fast. Yet this is exactly what the Tories are proposing to do.   Not planning a sensible exit for the stimulus, but a rush for the exits. Their plan to take billions out of the economy straight away would choke off recovery before it is secured. Just as they got the big judgements wrong on the recession they are now getting the big judgements wrong on the recovery. And it is the British people who would pay the price in lost jobs, lower living standards, and cuts to their services. Not a time for business as usual As the Parliament drew to a close  this week the Tories showed their true colours on some important issues.  They talk of change when the camera is on and block it when the camera is off: on one-to-one school tuition for children; on the use of DNA evidence to catch murderers and rapists; on voting reform; and on getting rid of the hereditary principle in t he House of Lords. Next week we will launch our manifesto that will set out our plans to address the main future challenges we face in our economy, our society and our politics: Rebuilding our economy means securing the recovery and investing in future growth and jobs, for the many not just the wealthy few; Renewing our society means further strengthening the communities that bind our country together, and continuing improvement in our public services; Restoring trust in politics means greater transparency and accountability in a system battered by the expenses scandal. We believe our programme for further national renewal meets the big challenges facing Britain with proposals that are ambitious but affordable, and which learn from what Labour has done well and the lessons we take from our experience to date. It is a manifesto to further our goal of a modern, progressive Britain, based on the values of fairness, respect, decency and openness. And one thing is also clear: this is not a time for a business-as-usual manifesto. The work we have to do is too big for anyone to be complacent – or to put confidence in novices. Thanks again for all you are doing. Keep up all your hard work. There is still some way to go but as we have shown in election campaigns before, victory comes to those with the best ideas and toughest resolve.

Should Labour Be Talking About Power-Sharing Just Days Into Election Campaign?

Gordon Brown has performed well in the Election campaign so far.

However with the opinion polls showing no appreciable difference in ratings between Labour and the Conservatives, the question of what would happen if the Election result was a hung parliament, has inevitably been raised.

In an interview last week, the Prime Minister appeared not to rule out the possibility of power-sharing if Labour does not have an overall majority come May 7.

My concern is, should Labour be talking about the possibility of there being a hung parliament so early in the campaign?

With there being so many people still undecided on how to vote, I would have much preferred Mr Brown to say that he expects Labour to win a majority, rather than sounding unsure about the result.

Recent opinion polls have shown the Conservatives to be only fractionally ahead of Labour.

What happened to the huge lead the Tories had over Labour a year ago? It has simply frittered away.

 This suggests that, despite all the effort that David Cameron has put into changing the Conservative Party since becoming leader, the British electorate have yet to be convinced that the Tories have now shaken off their image as the 'nasty party' and in 2010, represent the interests of the many, rather than the privileged few.

In my view, if the people really want a change of government and are looking to David Cameron and the Conservatives to offer a fresh start for this country, then he and his party should be much further ahead in the polls than they are now.

Whatever the outcome of this election and without being too complacent, the Government owes it to their supporters and the British people to at least appear more confident of outright victory.

Such uncertainty will only serve to persuade those voters who still don't know who they will support to perhaps vote tactically or worse still, not at all.

Brown On Top Form In Adoption Speech

Gordon Brown gave a barn-storming performance in his speech yesterday in Kirkcaldy.

Addressing supporters in his Scottish constituency, he accepted once again their adoption of him as their Labour Parliamentary candidate for the General Election.

He was on top form, promising to continue to fight for the British people when times were hard. Most important,.he reiterated that he is who he is, stating that 'I am not slick.....and I don't want to be!'

This is such contrast to what we continually get from David Cameron; trying to be all things to all men; saying one thing and believing another.

Mr Brown may not be the most media-savvy Prime Minister we have ever had, but you know when you hear him speak, that he is passionate about what he does and believes in and genuinely cares about the people of this country.

Tory Education Plans Will Do Little To Give Less Well-Off Access To Higher Education.

I was very disappointed when I heard David Cameron speaking on education this week.

He told his audience that if the Conservatives win power, because of the tough economic climate, University tuition fees will stay.

This will do nothing to encourage students from poorer backgrounds to consider Higher Education and completely flies in the face of Mr Cameron's promises to make Britain a more inclusive society.

No matter how vigorously they deny it, a Conservative Government will take us back to the 1980s and a degree will once again become the preserve of the rich.

Brown Comes Out Fighting As The Tories Engage In Fantasy Politics.

Gordon Brown showed he has the stomach for a fight as he went on the offensive against the Tories' tax proposals.

The Conservatives' plans for spending cuts have been exposed as a sham.

On top of the £15bn in savings that Labour have already planned, the Tories plan to make cuts of a further £12bn once they win office.  This means cuts of a massive £27bn.

These plans are completely unworkable and many commentators and academics have been quick to criticise them. The Government described them as 'fantasy' savings.  I have been wondering where George Osborne has disappeared to; he is conspicuous by his absence.

This issue is set to run and run and has certainly brought the election campaign to life.

Opponents Desperately Seek To Make Capital Out Of Labour's Proposed NI Rise

I was dismayed, but not in the least surprised at the way the Tories and their supporters in the media have seized on Labour's proposed rise in National Insurance.

The last PMQ's before the election was a stormy affair, with all three main party leaders attacking each other.

David Cameron accused the Government of attempting to kill economic recovery by introducing the NI increase, saying it will force us back into recession.    However in a TV interview, Minister Yvette Cooper was quick to deny this.

Crucially, what he and his media friends have ignored, is that this policy will not come into force until 2011, by which time the economy will have been out of recession for many months and therefore completely recovered.

This makes a complete nonsense of the Conservatives' argument and is political opportunism at its worst.

Confident Brown Kicks Off Election Campaign With A Clear Message To the Voters

Gordon Brown looked confident and relaxed as he announced that the next General Election will be, as expected, on 6 May. His message to the voters was unequivical: the Labour Party is leading this country out of recession and will continue the work to restore the economy to full working order. Labour are our best hope to protect jobs and vital frontline services.

The message from David Cameron, on the other hand, was predictably negative. The Tory leader struck a highly emotive tone, speaking of rescuing this country from 'the road to ruin'.

In 1997, the country was on its knees after 18 years of Tory misrule. We must work very hard to remind the electorate of everything that Labour has achieved and not allow the Tories to reverse all the good that has been done in the last 13 years.

There is no doubt that whoever wins will face some very tough decisions on the economy, in particular how quickly we cut public spending in order to reduce the huge budget deficit. It is clear that Labour's is the more sensible option; allowing the economy to recover slowly and delaying any radical reduction in spending until 2011.

The speed and degree of spending cuts which the Tories are proposing will be more likely to tip us very quickly back in to recession and ultimately damage the economy even further.

David Cameron and the Tories are by no means home and dry, despite their lead in the polls. They need a huge percentage swing of the vote in their favour to win power on 6 May.

It is up to every Labour Party member and supporter to put their heart and soul in to this campaign to ensure an unprecedented fourth successive Labour victory.

Blair On The Campaign Trail: An Asset Or Liability?

Listening to Tony Blair's speech in Trimdon this week, I was very impressed.

Whilst many people are unwilling to forgive him for taking us into Iraq, it is clear that Mr Blair still has the capacity to communicate with the electorate in a highly effective way.

Gordon Brown has always been a great communicator and it is clearly no longer certain that the Conservatives are home and dry at the next election. However Blair is able to put a message across in a manner that Brown has not been able to mirror nearly as well.

Some may argue that Blair's unpopularity over Iraq and the fact that he has been away from the domestic arena for a long time makes him a liability and unlikely to help Labour secure a fourth successive election victory.

However, I would argue that Tony Blair has lost none of his magic and his ability to connect with people will be invaluable in helping to sway undecided voters.

Court Injunction against RMT a victory for common-sense

The High Court's decision to block the planned industrial action by the RMT over the Easter weekend was definitely the right one.

Bob Crowe and his colleagues are not interested in negotiating a settlement with Network Rail. They claim that they are concerned about the safety of railway workers and passengers, but in reality, all they are interested in is their own political agenda.

They have timed all this just when there is about to be a General Election campaign in the UK, and are fully aware any dispute will undermine Labour's chances of being re-elected.

Surely they realise that they are just giving ammunition to the Conservatives and more substance to David Cameron's argument that Britain is now a 'broken society' and 'in a mess'.

The unions will be the first to complain if they are forced to deal with a Conservative government in a few weeks time. It is in their best interests to keep talking with their employers until an agreement is reached.