Listening to Tony Blair's speech in Trimdon this week, I was very impressed.
Whilst many people are unwilling to forgive him for taking us into Iraq, it is clear that Mr Blair still has the capacity to communicate with the electorate in a highly effective way.
Gordon Brown has always been a great communicator and it is clearly no longer certain that the Conservatives are home and dry at the next election. However Blair is able to put a message across in a manner that Brown has not been able to mirror nearly as well.
Some may argue that Blair's unpopularity over Iraq and the fact that he has been away from the domestic arena for a long time makes him a liability and unlikely to help Labour secure a fourth successive election victory.
However, I would argue that Tony Blair has lost none of his magic and his ability to connect with people will be invaluable in helping to sway undecided voters.
It's funny you describe Blair's 'magic' in this last paragraph - there was a fantastic article by an old left winger on this topic in the Observer yesterday: http://tinyurl.com/y8p73o3
ReplyDeleteIt's sensible for Labour to get him out there. The difference between winning and loosing this election is exactly the chunk of people that switched to Labour in '97 because of Blair.
Those to the old left will vote Labour come what may, those to the old right will be Tory come what may. Blair's Centre/Centre Right alignment (and ability to frame it as if he was centre-left) has always been in tune with the majority of those who don't have tribal allegiance - ie. the swing vote.
Much of the magic has faded - he used so much of his charm to convince many of us about the War in Iraq that there is an element of 'once bitten' to listening him and thinking him sincere nowadays. That said he still has far more magnatism as a speaker than the rest of the current Cabinet put together.
Cameron has not (yet) convinced that middle ground vote as convincingly as he could/should have done. I don't know if this is because he doesn't have the X-factor Blair did, or because Blair has made people to cynical to assume there is anything about him other than a cheap imitation - whatever the reason until he has won over the Blair '97 converts there is still all to play for.
My only argument, J, is your reason for regarding Blair as a liability. What he DID have in Office, though, was a brilliant team around him. I don't think Blair's rhetoric will help Brown with either left or right-leaning voters in the current campaign - and for me, it's got bugger all to do with Iraq, but neither do I think that Mr. Brown's team are capable. I know that both Brown (and Blair) and Cameron are completely out of touch. And having always voted Labour, I don't trust Labour, New or otherwise, any more than I do the Tories. I don't think I'm the only voter who feels like this. And no matter how wonderful Blair sounded this week, it's policies that count. And none of the main Parties seem to be considering what Joe Public might want, recession or not.
ReplyDeleteIf Cameron doesn't change his message over the next four weeks, he will definitely lose.
ReplyDeleteHe talks of change, but we have to ask ourselves, change to what?
DC keeps saying he will restore hope to the people but as far as I can see, it will amount to nothing more than a return to the Thatcherite policies of the 1980's.
He will have to put more flesh on the bones if he wants the keys to Number 10.
In any case, the current electoral system definitely favours Labour. The Tories will have to achieve an unprecedented percentage swing to them if they are to gain power.